Is it skill or luck? The strategy against random picks
Picking at random lost to the index (15.3%). The strategy beat both.
We test investing strategies on 10 years of real market data and publish only the ones that beat the S&P 500. Pick one, invest a fixed amount, hold for years. Every pick is tracked in public, losers included.
Every idea is run on 10 years of real prices. Only strategies that beat the S&P 500, in good years and bad, go live. Each one picks from the 500 biggest US companies every night.
Pick the strategy that suits you, then invest $100 a day, $500 a week, or whatever you like, with any broker that sells fractional shares.
No stop losses, no selling in a panic. We’ll tell you if a business you own gets worse. Otherwise, let it grow.
Each strategy puts $100 a day into its pick, on paper, where anyone can check. You see the whole portfolio.
Every strategy shows its full history, its worst drop and how often it trailed the market.
Everything is measured against simply buying the S&P 500. If we’re behind, you’ll see it.
Every number explains itself, plus a short course for complete beginners.
No. Every pick comes with a plain-English reason, and every number has a one-tap explanation.
Any broker that lets you buy fractional shares, so $100 can buy part of any stock.
Some will. Long-term investing means riding out dips. We only flag a holding when the business itself gets worse, not when the price drops.
That’s the aim, not a promise. That’s why the comparison is shown on every screen, good months and bad.
One of last year’s strongest stocks, now 25% below its high and still above its 200-day average.
| Picked | Stock | Since pick | S&P 500 same time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov | AMD | buys at the next open | – |
| 3 Nov | MRNA | ▲ +9.9% | +0.5% |
| 2 Nov | MRNA | ▲ +16.4% | +1.9% |
| 30 Oct | MRNA | ▲ +15.3% | +1.0% |
| 29 Oct | MRNA | ▲ +17.2% | +0.7% |
$100 every trading day for 10 years (Nov 2016 to Nov 2026), tested on real prices of every S&P 500 company at the time. Yearly return vs simply buying the S&P 500.
$100 every trading day for ten years in each strategy, next to the same money in the S&P 500. This is the backtest every strategy had to pass. The live record began with the first pick and takes over as it grows.
Picking at random lost to the index (15.3%). The strategy beat both.
Ahead of the S&P 500 in both halves (the index made 20.8% and 17.3%).
It beat the index, but a fall of 57% is more than most people can sit through. It stays in the lab.